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Summary

The paper titled “Not your father’s Recovery” written by Kenneth R. Beauchemin, was published in the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in September 9, 2010. This paper focuses on the primary problem of the recovery in the wake of the Great Recession. The author introduced the vector-autoregressive (VAR) model and thinks this model to solve the problem of the recovery in the Great Recession. This paper is published from Economists or experts in Economics regarded by the Economics issues.

Organization

The author organized this paper with a short introduction and a long part of graphics and literature review, a long recommend and a shorter conclusion. This paper is structured into distinct sections. The direct thesis is located in the first paragraph of the first sentence “If all goes according to the usual business-cycle dating procedures, a committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will soon convene to declare that what has come to be known as the “Great Recession” came to an end in June 2009” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010).

Also, the paper is cleanly organized. The paper has the main theme at the beginning with a brief guide to the audience, the basal Economics backgrounds, the results of the research and the approaches.

In the first part of the paper, there is the abstract section. The authors concluded, “The comparison is made using a scaled-down version of the sophisticated and powerful models that real forecasters actually use. Applying it to real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate suggests that the recovery looks consistent with past recoveries- at least so far.” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010). This part served as the overview and explicit display of the paper.

The second part of the paper is the literature and graphics review, which introduced the Vector Autoregressions (VAR) and the Force of History. In order to benchmark the new way, the authors contrasted the knowledge of the features of economics and what is the VAR model, also, why we would use the VAR model to do the research.

The third part of the paper is the methods, which is focuses on the Economics index forecast uses the VAR model. the first section is Recovering from the Great Recession. The authors put some examples like the model that is fitted to data from the first quarter of 1959 through the second quarter of 2009. The second section is the force of a more modern history. The authors pointed out some tricks when we use the VAR model.

Finally, the paper shows the concluding comments to sum up the whole passage.

Research

For regular research, most of the research in this paper is secondary research. As for this paper, most of the research came from published data and Economics reporting, because the author use direct data to analyze the topic of the paper. Thus, the authors supported their ideas more with secondary research. Furthermore, they displayed one table to show the details of knowledge of economics. For example, the authors provide the conception of Real GDP and Core PEC inflation. The authors also use paraphrases to support the topic. The paraphrases are more than the direct quotes and data. The document style is APA.

Style

Looking at the style, the author tended to use present tenses and active voice when delivering the article. He also chooses 1^st person plural for start. It helps the author express ideas logically and the readers understand easily. For example, “The line predicts 9.7 percent growth from the third quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, but we got only got 3.2 percent instead.” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010). Next, as for the paper, diverse transitions have been included between paragraphs, between words and between sentences. Conjunctive adverbs, for example ‘however’ and ‘therefore’ play the role in building up sentence relations. ‘As a result’, ‘But’, are used as paragraph-level transitions to signal connections. Many more transitions, such as ‘and’ and ‘so’, show the coherence among statements and words.

The paper’s main point is stated with each paragraph in the first sentence-a one-sentence summary. It was said what to expect as the audience goes on. They come first in the paragraph related to them. Therefore, the authors give the topic sentence was that “Two consequences of such an approach are important for Economics forecasting approaches.” Then the author explains some consequences in the following paragraphs.

Conclusion

All in all, this is a high-quality paper. The details of the context are about the interpretations of VAR model. I read the paper and got some news idea about Economics. This is not just a good writing lesson, but also a helpful one of my field of study. However, I knew how to use research results in a paper. It will help me to write a good paper in economics in the future.

References

Kenneth, R..B. (2010, Sept). Economic Commentary. Not Your Father’s Recovery? Retrieved from http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-12.cfm