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Summary
The paper titled “Not your father’s Recovery” written by Kenneth R. Beauchemin, was published in the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in September 9, 2010. This paper focuses on the primary problem of the recovery in the wake of the Great Recession. The author introduced the vector-autoregressive (VAR) model and thinks this model to solve the problem of the recovery in the Great Recession. This paper is published from Economists or experts in Economics regarded by the Economics issues.
Organization
The author organized this paper with a short introduction and a long part of graphics and literature review, a long recommend and a shorter conclusion. This paper is structured into distinct sections. The direct thesis is located in the first paragraph of the first sentence “If all goes according to the usual business-cycle dating procedures, a committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will soon convene to declare that what has come to be known as the “Great Recession” came to an end in June 2009” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010).
Also, the paper is cleanly organized. The paper has the main theme at the beginning with a brief guide to the audience, the basal Economics backgrounds, the results of the research and the approaches.
In the first part of the paper, there is the abstract section. The authors concluded, “The comparison is made using a scaled-down version of the sophisticated and powerful models that real forecasters actually use. Applying it to real GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate suggests that the recovery looks consistent with past recoveries- at least so far.” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010). This part served as the overview and explicit display of the paper.
The second part of the paper is the literature and graphics review, which introduced the Vector Autoregressions (VAR) and the Force of History. In order to benchmark the new way, the authors contrasted the knowledge of the features of economics and what is the VAR model, also, why we would use the VAR model to do the research.
The third part of the paper is the methods, which is focuses on the Economics index forecast uses the VAR model. the first section is Recovering from the Great Recession. The authors put some examples like the model that is fitted to data from the first quarter of 1959 through the second quarter of 2009. The second section is the force of a more modern history. The authors pointed out some tricks when we use the VAR model.
Finally, the paper shows the concluding comments to sum up the whole passage.
Research
For regular research, most of the research in this paper is secondary research. As for this paper, most of the research came from published data and Economics reporting, because the author use direct data to analyze the topic of the paper. Thus, the authors supported their ideas more with secondary research. Furthermore, they displayed one table to show the details of knowledge of economics. For example, the authors provide the conception of Real GDP and Core PEC inflation. The authors also use paraphrases to support the topic. The paraphrases are more than the direct quotes and data. The document style is APA.
Style
Looking at the style, the author tended to use present tenses and active voice when delivering the article. He also chooses 1st person plural for start. It helps the author express ideas logically and the readers understand easily. For example, “The line predicts 9.7 percent growth from the third quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, but we got only got 3.2 percent instead.” (Kenneth R. Beauchemin, 2010). Next, as for the paper, diverse transitions have been included between paragraphs, between words and between sentences. Conjunctive adverbs, for example ‘however’ and ‘therefore’ play the role in building up sentence relations. ‘As a result’, ‘But’, are used as paragraph-level transitions to signal connections. Many more transitions, such as ‘and’ and ‘so’, show the coherence among statements and words.
The paper’s main point is stated with each paragraph in the first sentence-a one-sentence summary. It was said what to expect as the audience goes on. They come first in the paragraph related to them. Therefore, the authors give the topic sentence was that “Two consequences of such an approach are important for Economics forecasting approaches.” Then the author explains some consequences in the following paragraphs.
Conclusion
All in all, this is a high-quality paper. The details of the context are about the interpretations of VAR model. I read the paper and got some news idea about Economics. This is not just a good writing lesson, but also a helpful one of my field of study. However, I knew how to use research results in a paper. It will help me to write a good paper in economics in the future.
References
Kenneth, R..B. (2010, Sept). Economic Commentary. Not Your Father’s Recovery? Retrieved from http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-12.cfm
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百家樂是賭場中最古老且最受歡迎的博奕遊戲，無論是實體還是線上娛樂城都有其踪影。其簡單的規則和公平的遊戲機制吸引了大量玩家。不只如此，線上百家樂近年來更是受到玩家的喜愛，其優勢甚至超越了知名的實體賭場如澳門和拉斯維加斯。
百家樂入門介紹
百家樂(baccarat)是一款起源於義大利的撲克牌遊戲，其名稱在英文中是「零」的意思。從十五世紀開始在法國流行，到了十九世紀，這款遊戲在英國和法國都非常受歡迎。現今百家樂已成為全球各大賭場和娛樂城中的熱門遊戲。(來源: wiki百家樂 )
百家樂主要是玩家押注莊家或閒家勝出的遊戲。參與的人數沒有限制，不只坐在賭桌的玩家，旁邊站立的人也可以下注。
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探尋娛樂城的多元魅力
娛樂城近年來成為了眾多遊戲愛好者的熱門去處。在這裡，人們可以體驗到豐富多彩的遊戲並有機會贏得豐厚的獎金，正是這種刺激與樂趣使得娛樂城在全球範圍內越來越受歡迎。
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娛樂城的優惠活動
娛樂城常會提供各種吸引人的優惠活動，例如新玩家註冊獎勵、首存贈送、以及VIP會員專享的多項福利，吸引了大量玩家前來參與。這些優惠不僅讓玩家獲得更多遊戲時間，還提高了他們贏得大獎的機會。
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隨著科技的快速發展，娛樂城也在不斷進行創新。虛擬現實（VR）、區塊鏈技術等新科技的應用，使得娛樂城提供了更多先進、多元和個性化的遊戲體驗。例如，通過VR技術，玩家可以更加真實地感受到賭場的氛圍和環境，得到更加沉浸和刺激的遊戲體驗。
探尋娛樂城的多元魅力
娛樂城近年來成為了眾多遊戲愛好者的熱門去處。在這裡，人們可以體驗到豐富多彩的遊戲並有機會贏得豐厚的獎金，正是這種刺激與樂趣使得娛樂城在全球範圍內越來越受歡迎。
娛樂城的多元遊戲
娛樂城通常提供一系列的娛樂選項，從經典的賭博遊戲如老虎機、百家樂、撲克，到最新的電子遊戲、體育賭博和電競項目，應有盡有，讓每位遊客都能找到自己的最愛。
娛樂城的優惠活動
娛樂城常會提供各種吸引人的優惠活動，例如新玩家註冊獎勵、首存贈送、以及VIP會員專享的多項福利，吸引了大量玩家前來參與。這些優惠不僅讓玩家獲得更多遊戲時間，還提高了他們贏得大獎的機會。
娛樂城的便利性
許多娛樂城都提供在線遊戲平台，玩家不必離開舒適的家就能享受到各種遊戲的樂趣。高品質的視頻直播和專業的遊戲平台讓玩家仿佛置身於真實的賭場之中，體驗到了無與倫比的遊戲感受。
娛樂城的社交體驗
娛樂城不僅僅是遊戲的天堂，更是社交的舞台。玩家可以在此結交來自世界各地的朋友，一邊享受遊戲的樂趣，一邊進行輕鬆愉快的交流。而且，許多娛樂城還會定期舉辦各種社交活動和比賽，進一步加深玩家之間的聯繫和友誼。
娛樂城的創新發展
隨著科技的快速發展，娛樂城也在不斷進行創新。虛擬現實（VR）、區塊鏈技術等新科技的應用，使得娛樂城提供了更多先進、多元和個性化的遊戲體驗。例如，通過VR技術，玩家可以更加真實地感受到賭場的氛圍和環境，得到更加沉浸和刺激的遊戲體驗。
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