tangtao's blog

The paper titled “Not your father’s Recovery” written by Kenneth R. Beauchemin, was published in the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, in September 9, 2010. The author proposed different approaches to thinking about the Great Recession based on the Vector-autoregression (VAR). The author demonstrated his way by using some concepts and graphs for the Great Recession.

In his research, the author discussed some general concepts that we should know for Economics. For example, for the Vector- autoregression (VAR), we need to coordinate the economics forecast to know if we use the Vector- autoregression (VAR) to forecast. We should know the past data; before we get regression used by VAR, we should understand some key economic indicators, such as the notion of Real GDP, Unemployment rate and Federal funds rate, etc; for real data from the past, we should have a clear concept for particular data.

The paper also includes some graphs to illustrate the forecast of the variables generated by using VAR. The author asserted some situations in the forecast model, like why some points are not located in the probability band.

The paper concluded that some solutions could explain why some data are out of the probability band and what measures are desirable to recover from the Great Recession. Reference:

Kenneth, R..B. (2010, Sept). Economic Commentary. Not Your Father’s Recovery? Retrieved from http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/commentary/2010/2010-12.cfm