Stock Nostradamus

“Sell in May and Stay Away” is a common saying and practice in investing. According to John Lung, an Associate Financial Advisor at Ameriprise Financial, “Sell in May and Stay Away” is, “the belief that starting at the beginning of May, people are less worried about their portfolios. In the summer people are on vacation and aren’t worried as much about the market,” said Lung. He continued saying, “with this people feel that the market will have more volatility and will go down. Last May was one of the worst. It’s not until school starts in September that people feel everyone’s starts concentrating back on their portfolios.”

Ben Muncher, a entrepreneur in downtown Atlanta, dismissed the notion of the “Sell in May and Stay Away” saying, “I didn’t really pay no mind to it, I felt the market would work itself out and good stocks would rise and bad stock would fall regardless.”

Tyne Hyslop, a branch manager at Raymond James, also dismisses the notion saying, “to put it into principal, I disagree. Through all my experience with handling money and investing I can say it’s hard to predict the market.”

Hyslip goes on to say, “the thing is, is that May is just a weaker period of the market. Also to flip that saying upside down, if you look at it, in May’s before presidential election like we are in now the market mostly always increases in anticipation for the future president.”

Five Stocks to “Sell in May and Stay Away”

I feel that Apple and Catepillar have reached their peeks and unless you buy an enormous amount of the stock the five dollar limbo won’t be that much of a gain. These stocks are selling currently at: AAPL – 346.61 and CAT – 112.94. These two stocks are out of my price range and unless you have a large bankroll they’re more than likely out of yours as well.

The next three are Goldcorp, Agnico Eagle Mines and Barrick Gold Corporation all of these are based out of Vancouver, Canada. The concern about all three of these stocks is that they are all over-owned. People gobbled them up because for a solid time precise materials such as gold, copper, and silver were on the rise. But now copper is going down, and with the “Sell in May and Stay Away” peopleare dumping these stocks driving down their prices.

Goldcorp (GG) is currenlty selling at $51.66, dropping nearly four dollars from Monday, one day. For Agnico (AEM) it suffered an even worse hit, trading as high as $69.31 on Monday and selling currently $64.20 per share. Barrick (ABX) experienced the least out of the three companies. Selling at $50.64 on Monday and currently selling at around $48.50 per share. All of these stocks are good but with the pending summer and the margins so much, it might be better to take a vacation yourself in the summer and get back in September. But if you feel confident and believe that in the third year of a presidency in anticipation for the future the market will flourish, then summer is the time to make your move.

1. Apple Inc. – Cupertino, California
2. Caterpillar Inc. – Peoria, Illinois
3. Goldcorp Inc. – Vancouver, Canada
4. Agnico Eagle Mines – Vancouver, Canada
5. Barrick Gold Corporation – Vancouver, Canada

View Sell in May in a larger map

When you look at a car any car you can see various aspects of the stock market. When you really look at anything you should try to make the connections and ramifications it has within the stock market.

Here is a podcast about the topic of “fracking” which in recent weeks has been the debate of many television and radio personnel. As the podcast below goes into what fracking actually is and some of the positives and negatives of utilizing fracking.

In this article I will talk about a number of corporations that would be greatly effected if there was legislation passed to limit or even ban fracking. The podcast hits on Exxon Mobile, the corporations with the highest impact would be these oil/natural gas or raw material excavating businesses.

A couple of these corporations were featured in my Google map Top Ten Stocks. Corporations such as Goldcorp Incorporated, Silver Wheaton Corp, Energy Transfer Partners, and Freeport-McMoRan Copper. These four corporations only focus of turning profit relys on excavating valuable materials from the earth such as gold, silver, or copper.

If the federal or state governments were to implement restrictions on ways these corporations use to excavate these materials their profits will go down just merely based on quantity produced. With more restrictions these corporations will have lower quantities off of productivity.

This can cause various ramifications for these corporations. Implementing or even just strong rumors of implementing restrictions will cause stakeholders to back away from these corporations thus lowering the price of the stock. This will also cause the corporations to need to try and turn even by not earning as much as their spending by more than likely laying off members of their workforce because they are the most expendable.

Voice0005 by user4142828

In this post I will discuss some of the stock that I featured on my last post with the Google map and haven’t yet been analyzed before by me.

The first stock is Energy Transfer Partners LP (ETP) which is based out of Dallas, Texas. It is quickly becoming one of the largest retail marketers of propane. It specializes in natural gas pipelines. Their gas operations “include more than 17,500 miles of gathering and transportation pipelines, treating and processing assets, and three storage facilities located in Texas,” according to the company website. These operations are in eight states Arkansas, Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Utah, and West Virginia and owns the largest intrastate pipeline system in Texas. The stock is currently trading at $52.97 per share.

The next stock is Silver Wheaton Corporation (SLW) based out of Vancouver, Canada. The stock is currently selling at $46.91 per share. According to the SLW website the future of the company looks very promising, “Based upon its current agreements, forecast 2011 attributable production is 27 to 28 million silver equivalent ounces, including 15,000 ounces of gold. By 2015, annual attributable production is anticipated to increase significantly to approximately 43 million silver equivalent ounces, including 35,000 ounces of gold. Beyond the initial upfront payment, no ongoing capital expenditures are required to generate this growth and Silver Wheaton does not hedge its silver production.”

Lastly the stock of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) which is based out of Phoenix, Arizona. The stock is currently selling at $57.23 per share. Their website states, “FCX is the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer and has a dynamic portfolio of operating, expansion and growth projects in the copper industry. FCX is also the world’s largest producer of molybdenum and a significant gold producer.”

Here is a Google Map showing the locations what I feel are the Top Ten Stocks. There are multiple points in the same spot in Vancouver, Canada and San Francisco, California.
(No particular order)

1. Wells Fargo – San Francisco, California
2. Exxon Mobil – Dallas, Texas
3. Goldcorp Inc. – Vancouver, Canada
4. JP Morgan Chase – New York City, New York
5. Valeant Pharmaceuticals International – Los Angeles, California
6. Energy Transfer Partners LP – Dallas, Texas
7. Marathon Oil – Houston, Texas
8. First Republic Bank – San Francisco, California
9. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold – Phoenix, Arizona
10. Silver Wheaton Corporation – Vancouver, Canada

View Top 10 Stocks Headquarters in a larger map

5 Big Bank Stock Buybacks
By Maria Woehr

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Increases in bank dividend payouts have been on the rise since the Federal Reserve’s announcement of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, or “stress tests.” Dividend increase announcements got most of the buzz with the release of the results.

However, bank announcements of buybacks as a way of returning capital to shareholders were just as prolific.

Buybacks are expected to make up two-thirds of payouts in 2011 and their significance should not be overshadowed by dividend payouts, according to analysis done by Goldman Sachs(GS).

“For JPMorgan Chase(JPM), Wells Fargo(WFC), and State Street(STT) over two thirds of the announced capital returns are expected to come in the form of a buyback,” said analysts Richard Ramsden and Christopher Neczypor in a note. “We believe an additional element of the bank capital plans was the intention to repurchase trust preferred securities.”

The aggressive buybacks have even led Standard & Poor’s taking a close look at banks’ share buyback programs as possibly weakening balance sheets.

Part of the reason banks are boosting their repurchasing programs is because in 2013 banks with assets greater than $15 billion can no longer include trust preferred as part of their Tier One capital as required by Dodd Frank. The largest 14 banks have almost $100 billion of trust preferred outstanding, so the scramble to pick those shares up is on, according to analysts at Goldman.

Here are is a list of the biggest banks that will be repurchasing shares in 2011.

The definition of buyback from answers.com is “The repurchase of stock by the company that issued it, as to reduce holdings of a single investor or increase the value of shares by reducing their number.”

In the case of most of these banks they will be repurchasing the stock from the government who (if these banks were involved in the $700 million bank bailout) purchased large sums of the banks stock.

The article then goes into each bank specifically stating the reasons why they believe these stocks are the right choice. For the most part I agree with Woehr, I’ve been a big fan of Wells Fargo for some time now. I personally seen their take over of Wachovia’s down south in Atlanta and realized this stock is going to the top. It is the stock that I’m currently invested in and one that my father has invested in as well.

Next when anyone talks about investment banking, JP Morgan Chase is always mentioned near the top of the list. JP Morgan is one of the most prestigious names in the business. Goldman Sachs Group shares the same prestigious pull with clients but currently is selling at $160.23 which is out of my price range to really buy a significant quantity to turn a substantial profit.

Two banks that I was surprised not to be picked by Woehr was First Republic Bank (FRC) and Citigroup. Both these banks have growing high bankroll clients (by that I mean millionaires and billionaires). But I’m guessing Woehr is classifying these banks as well as Bank of America (BAC) as none major banks.

The thing about the stock market is that it is complex. It has so many variables within it that you really need to analyze when investing. There are a lot of people who don’t know anything about the stock market, other are unaware of different aspects that are highly influential.

There are myths and misconceptions that surround the stock market. For example that the stock market is only for the suits, the Wall Street businessmen and the rich. That you need to be a millionaire to invest and that the only people turning a profit are the millionaires or individuals that are cheating in some way such as insider trading. Also with all these online trading sites people don’t have to have an investment advisor which earns 10% commission off your earnings, you can do it yourself.

At a college such as Bowling Green State University the assumption that students would at least have some grasp of the stock market. However, upon interviewing some of these students, you’d be surprised with the results.

Paul Barney, a senior at BGSU graduating in May with a major in print journalism and a minor in popular culture. At the beginning of the interview at the mention of the topic being the stock market Barney replied, “I don’t know anything about the stock market.”

“I mean I know the basis of the stock market but not a full understanding of it. The stock market would definitely be something I’d look into if I had more money. I want to be like that guy from the Social Network (Eduardo Saverin) and make $300,000 over the summer.”

This phenomena isn’t just limited to BGSU. Darin Young a senior at Slippery Rock University has some interest and knowledge in the stock market. He was unaware though of various elements of the stock market.

“I didn’t know that,” exclaimed Young upon finding out that the government added an extra tax on earnings determined on the amount of duration the stock is kept before it is sold.

Young, was interested in purchasing bank stocks such as AIG, after the $700 billion bank bailout but choose not too because of a lack confidence and knowledge of the market.

“I wanted to invest in AIG, but I didn’t really know what I was doing. I was going to talk to some of my economic and business professors about what they thought but never got around to it,” said Young.

Associate financial advisor, John Lung of Ameriprise Financial put all these myths and misconceptions to rest, “These are all definetly not true. Indvidual investors can use their 401K, have a pay deduction to acquire mutal funds. People could also use IRA’s. Anyone can invest,” said Lung.

On the regards to insider trading, “Obviousily that’s a no, no. But it does occur I’m sure. But that’s not the only way to earn a profit. You can earn profit by studying the market and diversifying,” said Lung.

You don’t have to be a millionaire or even an avid researcher in evaluating the market to determine the precise stocks to invest in. The main thing you really need to have is common sense. The common sense to realize the shifts of the market, the variables, and the impact they have. An easy task, right?

Yes, there are so many variables of which I’ve talked about multiple times but you can really condense these different facets into some generalities. For example take into account facts, oil is going to one of the most valuable commodities until it runs out, Russia is the largest producer of wheat and Japan is the home of Toyota and Honda. So invest in oil, Russia had fires across the land destroying wheat fields which if you know general economics supply decreases, price increases and with all the events in Japan Toyota and Honda are going to be impacted negatively on multiple levels such as production, sales, prices of parts will increase.

I wanted to discuss the advantages of using social networks as a stock market tool. When I talk about social networks I’m talking about Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. These are the three social networks that I use, I’m sure there are others that people use but I’m just going off my personal experiences.

When Shia LaBeouf was preparing for his role in the movie Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, he worked with a number of brokers who taught him the in-and-outs of the profession. LaBeouf said that some time after he was done shooting the film he found out that a majority of the brokers who he learned from were arrested for insider trading of which, they did over Twitter. Now I’m not promoting or condoning insider trading, I’m merely saying these social networks are new technological advantages that can be used properly and legally to improve your wherewithal.

These social networks are great places to find information and people who have various knowledge of the stock market that you can utilize. For example Twitter, Jim Cramer tweets non-stop about stocks he likes and dislikes and provides sites with input of various stocks. Next you have investors and other business personnel around the world which you can follow and connect with and get insight into how influential elements are going on in those areas. Such as following a individual who is a investor from China, you can talk to them about how the spending habits are over there, or even is their any possible public uprising. The main thing to note in using these social networks is to be smart and know how to filter out useless information and know the good stuff.

Like I’ve said before I like to watch Mad Money with Jim Cramer. But the point of this post is to talk about the impact this show brings. I’ve seen on multiple occasions the stocks that are featured on the show be effected. For example one show Cramer featured a stock called First Republic Bank (FRC), he said that he liked the stock, citing that it was becoming the choice of more and more millionaires and billionaires. The very next day the stock went up I believe it was $1.37 per share. Likewise stocks that Cramer dislikes take a negative hit more often than not. So if you have a stock you want to get a short-term boost too, call up Jim Cramer on Mad Money and pray he likes it too.

Now to reiterate on a point I’ve made before in my posts, look at the news and view it on multiple levels. Now in the news is the devastation in Japan. My prayers go out to those effected. From a investors standpoint I would determine that Japan is the third largest consumer of oil. So I could assume that oil prices would decrease for some time.

Another tip for the stock market is for every dollar that you plan on investing have another dollar to back it up. This allows you to have the capital to back your losses if they occur. The stock market is a easy way to earn money but an even easier way to lose it if you do it carelessly.

Since the last post which would was a week ago, Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO) has risen to $51.66 a share. A $3.04 increase. This leads me into my next point, long-term vs. short-term investments. We’ve all heard the tale about the turtle and the hare, or slow and steady wins the race. These are debates that occur in the stock market as well. Both short term and long term investments have their positives and negatives and could vary between each different stock.

Let me example, short term you get your money in and out. There’s less chance of variables such as natural disasters, civil upheaval, or rumors (quickly spread rumors within the NYSE circle can tremendous impact on the stock). Add in the fact that already the majority of financial advisors keep 10% of earnings along with nearly half the profit going to the government. Plus depending on how short the term actually is there is an extra fee to sell those stocks.

You know those commercials about settled payments, “It’s my money and I want it now!” The stock market doesn’t work like that. Long term investments, the stock usually increases overtime, there is less risk (financially due to the stock probably at least balancing out), and the longer you own the stock the less the tax from the government is (the tax won’t decrease past the base percent but instead of say 45% you may only pay 35%). Negatives, you’re money is locked in the stock market and you can’t use it for anything else. So for how much you invest and what in invest in be aware of all the circumstances and make an educated decision.

Here is a little slideshow revolving about the stock market.

Here is the main focus of any stock investor. In the struggle of determining which actual stock to invest in there are a couple factors that should be analyzed. The first is the amount of how much the stock is trading at sell high, buy low. Stocks that are currently over $80 a share shouldn’t be looked at. Unless of course you have a large bankroll backing. In order for you to gain more profit you need more quantity. Having a couple high priced stocks like Apple or Netflix doesn’t turn high profit when the stock only goes up a couple dollars.

I would recommend searching for lower priced stocks with great potential that you can buy in bulk and turn large sums of profit. Of course it is a catch 22, buying more amounts of stocks of potential stocks have the potential to fall and lose more money than you would if you merely bought a couple shares of high end stocks. There are stocks that trade under $80 that are in big money areas such are oil. Marathon Oil Corporation is currently selling at $48.62. Oil companies are high probability moneymakers because they the vast majority of the time go up.

Another thing to look at in determining what stocks to choice is common sense, mixed with current events. If a hurricane hits off the Gulf of Mexico or snow storms hit farming lands then put one and one together and think Gulf of Mexico, oil and gas prices are going to increase invest in those oil stocks or dairy products are going to decrease in supply which increases prices, so invest in stocks in regards to those areas. Then current events is the same thing, turmoil in Egypt and other countries around the world, oil production decreases so prices go up.

Use all the resources at your disposal. Watch and read all the material you can find.

My name is Bryan Filipponi and I am a 22-year-old senior at Bowling Green State University. I am majoring in print journalism and a minor in Theater. I’m from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. This blog is going to focus around the stock market. Ever since I was in the middle school I have been interested in the stock market. It really came from the fact that in 7th Grade my group won this stock game with the my stock picks of Starbucks (which was around $22 at the start and finished around $58) and Dicks Sporting Goods.

You might think to yourself why listen to this college kid, why not just go out and buy a Warren Buffet book or look up the top brokers portfolios and merely try to copy them as your own. My professor voiced the same concerns, stating what are your credentials? I have around $15,000 currently in the stock market, on the financial website stockpickr.com in the Wall Street Pros vs Main Street Joes challenge, I am ranked 213th out of around 5,000 people. Boosting a positive 28% return on my investments.

I am an active searcher for the next bubble by reading various books and watching multiple financial television programs all of which enhance my stock picking precision. Another reason why my blog on the stock market is valuable is new ideas. Investors, like myself are always looking for new stocks, backed by common sense, facts, and/or a solid thought process. Investors sometimes just need some reassurance in the stocks they researched but are on the fence about investing in.